The economic and social impact of declining fertility: a case study of Thailand.

This article examines the socioeconomic consequences for Thailand of past, present and future declines in fertility. It finds that the declining rate of population growth has made it much easier for Thailand to sustain the shock of falling economic growth and the temporary uncertainty about the economic future which existed between 1982 and 1985. Moreover, by removing the continued pressure of rapid population growth on the labor force, Thailand's unemployment problem, whil real in the short term, will be very manageable over the longer term. Also, it shows that pssure will be eased on increasing the quantity of public services, such as education and health, thus enabling an increase in the quality of those services. Such an emphasis on the quality of human resources is obviously consistent with, and even essential to, Thailand's longer term economic goal of moving away from primary products and light industry into high-tech and export-oriented complex manufacturing industries. The slowing down of population growth also provides an opportunity to insure that minimal public services are readily available to everyone in the country. The convergence of all regions and strata of the population towards acceptance of the small family norm will also play a role in reducing the regional disparities in output and income per worker.